NCSM’s 1Q26 came in below expectations as Canada and select international projects weighed on results, while continued U.S. momentum helped offset the shortfall. In our view, the quarter does not change the core thesis around U.S. product momentum, ResMetrics integration, and the Company’s capital-light model, but it does highlight the timing risk embedded in Canada seasonality and project-based international work. The key change is cadence, with 2Q26 guidance implying a softer near-term trough and maintained FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance pointing to a more back-half-weighted recovery tied to deferred Canadian work, recurring Repeat Precision activity, and ResMetrics synergies. Separately, management noted that 2026 guidance excludes potential sliding sleeve deliveries for its first deepwater Gulf of Mexico opportunity, which could materialize in late 2026 or early 2027.
